Cheremisinov Georgy Aleksandrovich, Doctor of economic sciences, professor, sub-department of economics and national economy, Saratov State University named after N. G. Chernyshevsky (83 Astrakhanskaya street, Saratov, Russia), Cheremisinov@inbox.ru
Pugachyov Ilya Olegovich, Assistant, sub-department of tourism and cultural heritage, Saratov State University named after N.G. Chernyshevsky (83 Astrakhanskaya street, Saratov, Russia), email@example.com
Background. The article is devoted to theoretical and methodological aspects of the military business of the state in concepts of long-term economic cycles. The originality of the scientific approach is to try to justify the legitimacy of inclusion of military Keynesianism in the model of secular cycles and half-century cycles.
Materials and methods. The scientific hypothesis about conditionality of external and internal threats to economic security of Russia by a combination of objective factors of cyclic dynamics of the situation and subjective factors of the state policy allows to explore the military, political and socio-economic problems with the application of the methodology of Microsystem analysis, concepts of government entrepreneurship and long-term economic cycles.
Results. Based on the submitted scientific hypotheses it is shown the activities of USA being a hegemonic state determined the basis processes of the contemporary world economy and formed the conditions of K-cycle actualizing within a secular cycle of capital accumulation. Long-wave fluctuations of the Russian economic conjuncture were connected with the cycling dynamic of the world economy. “Floating” motions within the K-cycles were typical for the semi-peripheral Russian model of government entrepreneurship. On the buoyant waves there was observed the Russian approaching to the center of the world economy and its recession to the periphery on the bearish waves.
Conclusions. Phase dating and time characteristics of economic cycles, determination of the social-political tendencies of developing are feasible in the base of economic activities and “indicative” political events. The international escalation intensity was observed in the critical times within the K-cycles’ phases: from descending to ascending and vice versa. Opposition intensification of the macroeconomic subjects’ interests within the secular and K-cycle phases’ changings of the world-economy conjuncture explains a part of nowadays difficulties in the Russian economy by the toughening of the international competition and its conflict forms demonstration: sanctions, embargo, monetary and commercial wars, and open warfare. The government rearmament program of the Russian army should be considered as a long-term megaproject, creating precondition for the buoyant K-cycle phase.
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